"Kotu's Surge: Institutions Actively Research, Funds Rush to Add Positions"

Since the establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, the weight of the "Sci-Tech Valuation" sector in institutional research activities has increased by 4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. There has also been a trend of capital inflow in ETFs and Northbound Capital. However, in a market with obvious rotation characteristics, the sustainability of this trend remains to be observed.

On June 19th, during the keynote speech at the 15th Lujiazui Forum, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing stated that the CSRC will "actively embrace the development of new quality productive forces." To this end, the next steps will focus on three aspects: first, to enhance the service coverage and precision of multi-level markets; second, to strengthen patient capital; and third, to address the issue of inclusive innovation from the perspectives of systems, mechanisms, and concepts.

On the same day, the CSRC's official website released the "Eight Measures to Deepen the Reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Serve the Development of Scientific Innovation and New Quality Productive Forces." According to the document, the CSRC will reinforce the "hard technology" positioning of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, carry out pilot reforms of the issuance and underwriting system, optimize the stock and debt financing system for listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, provide stronger support for mergers and acquisitions, improve the equity incentive system, refine the trading mechanism, strengthen the full-chain regulation of listed companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and actively foster a positive market ecosystem.

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Against the backdrop of the "Sci-Tech Valuation" trend becoming the recent main line, the aforementioned statements and policy releases have objectively provided new momentum for the development of the trend.

Prior to this, influenced by the establishment of the "third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund," the "Sci-Tech Valuation" concept significantly outperformed the broader market. As of June 18th, since the establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (May 24th), the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index has risen by 4.08%, leading all broad-based indices and surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and CSI 300 Index by 5.98, 5.21, and 5.63 percentage points, respectively.

"Sci-Tech Valuation" is a new concept proposed by Founder Securities based on "new quality productive forces," first advocated in their research report released on March 10th. Hua Xin Securities believes that this concept mainly covers three major directions: advantageous industries, autonomous controllability, and future industries. Everbright Securities, on the other hand, believes it mainly covers autonomous controllability, cutting-edge technology, and high-end manufacturing.

As of June 18th, there is no "Sci-Tech Valuation" index available for investors to refer to in the market. In terms of industrial characteristics, the electronics, communications, and computer industries are considered to have a significant correlation with "Sci-Tech Valuation."

From the market response, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, as well as the China Artificial Intelligence Index and the China Technology Self-Innovation Index, have a high degree of synergy with the "Sci-Tech Valuation" concept. The increases of the latter two indices since the establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund are 6.73% and 2.63%, respectively.

Data also shows that for the "Sci-Tech Valuation" sector (mainly including the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Artificial Intelligence Index, Technology Self-Innovation Index, and electronics, communications, and computer industries), institutional research interest has increased, and the trend of capital inflow (based on ETFs and Northbound Capital) is also quite evident. However, in a market with obvious rotation characteristics, the sustainability of this trend remains to be observed.

Institutional Research Weight IncreasesFirst, let's look at the dynamics of institutional research.

Data from Eastmoney CHOICE shows that as of June 18th, since the establishment of the third phase of the National Fund, there have been 705 listed companies surveyed by institutions, among which 277 are from the "Science and Technology Evaluation" sector, accounting for 39.29%, an increase of 3.96 percentage points compared to the first quarter.

During the same period, there were 511 listed companies surveyed by public funds, among which 221 are "Science and Technology Evaluation" targets, accounting for 43.24%, an increase of 6.13 percentage points compared to the first quarter. In the first quarter, there were 1280 listed companies surveyed by public funds, among which 475 are "Science and Technology Evaluation" targets.

The data also shows that as of June 18th, among the top 10 listed companies receiving public fund institutions in the second quarter, there are 9 "Science and Technology Evaluation" targets, such as澜起科技、天孚通信、中控技术 and Nine Company. In the second quarter,澜起科技 was surveyed by 9 batches of public fund institutions totaling 153, 天孚通信 by 2 batches totaling 137, 中控技术 by 17 batches totaling 136, and Nine Company by 3 batches totaling 127.

It should be noted that institutional research data can only indicate the interest of institutions in a certain industry and listed companies during a certain period, and there is no positive correlation with the market performance of listed companies during the corresponding period. For example, the performance of the above 4 targets in the second quarter is quite different, with increases of 19.04%, -7.34%, -12.54%, and 37.99% respectively.

However, overall, since the establishment of the third phase of the National Fund, the market performance of the "Science and Technology Evaluation" sector has been significantly ahead of the overall market.

The data shows that as of June 18th, the increases in the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and Science and Technology Innovation 100 indices since the establishment of the third phase of the National Fund are 4.08% and 1.25% respectively, ranking first and second among broad-based indices. During the same period, the increases in the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and SSE 300 Index are -1.90%, -1.13%, -0.40%, and -1.55% respectively.

During the same period, the increases in the Science and Technology Chip and Science and Technology Information, two Science and Technology Innovation Board industry indices, and the Artificial Intelligence Index are 12.66%, 7.74%, and 6.73% respectively. The increases in the SWS Electronics, Communication, and Computer industry indices are 10.35%, 5.42%, and 0.20% respectively, ranking first, second, and sixth among 31 peers.

ETF Inflow Trend

According to Eastmoney CHOICE data, as of June 18th, there are 777 stock ETFs with a total share scale of 1.54 trillion, an increase of 3.62% compared to the end of the first quarter. Among them, the inflow of funds into "Science and Technology Evaluation" related ETFs has been quite obvious recently.Taking the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF as an example. There are 11 such ETFs, including 8 regular ETFs and 3 enhanced ETFs. As of June 18, the combined share scale was 173.517 billion shares, an increase of 7.178 billion shares from the end of the first quarter, and an increase of 2.998 billion shares from the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund, with growth rates of 4.31% and 1.76%, respectively.

ETFs tracking the Sci-Tech Innovation 100, Sci-Tech Chip, and Sci-Tech Information indices, which are themed indices of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, also show signs of capital inflow. Taking the Sci-Tech Chip ETF as an example, as of June 18, there are 3 such ETFs with a combined share scale of 7.275 billion shares, an increase of 1.345 billion shares from the end of the first quarter, and an increase of 1.013 billion shares from the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund, with growth rates of 22.69% and 16.18%, respectively.

Overall, as of June 18, the share scale of the 7 types of Sci-Tech Innovation Board-themed ETFs (the tracked indices include the above 4 types, as well as the Sci-Tech Growth, Sci-Tech Biology, and Sci-Tech Materials indices) increased by 3.55% from the end of the first quarter, and increased by 2.40% from the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund.

Looking at the holder structure, the funds inflow into the above 7 types of Sci-Tech-themed ETFs mainly come from individual investors, but the proportion of shares held by institutional investors is increasing. As of the end of 2023, the shares held by institutional investors accounted for 32.64% of the total share scale of these 7 ETFs, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year.

Looking at the ETFs tracking the artificial intelligence index, as of June 18, the share scale of these ETFs was 2.115 billion shares, an increase of 146 million shares from the end of the first quarter, with a growth rate of 7.41%. The main holders are also individual investors, and the proportion of institutional investors is also increasing, rising from 23.37% at the end of 2022 to 30.81% at the end of 2023.

There are no corresponding ETF products for the technology independent innovation index. As for the electronics and computer industry, the share scale of ETFs tracking the chip industry index and the software service index increased by 744 million shares and 440 million shares, respectively, from the end of the first quarter, with growth rates of 20.71% and 28.37%, respectively. Compared to the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund, the share scale increased by 367 million shares and 167 million shares, with growth rates of 9.23% and 10.79%, respectively.

However, the share scale of ETFs tracking the communication industry-related indices has decreased. For example, the share scale of ETFs tracking the communication equipment index decreased by 748 million shares and 310 million shares from the end of the first quarter and the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund, with a decrease of 12.81% and 26.17%, respectively.

Northbound capital increases position

There are also signs of inflow of northbound capital.

Taking the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as an example. According to the data from East Money CHOICE, as of June 18, the market value of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board targets held by northbound capital was 76.062 billion yuan, accounting for 2.09% of the circulating market value of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, an increase of 0.07 percentage points from the end of the first quarter. The holding market value increased by 5.34% compared to the end of the first quarter.Out of the 17 constituent industries covered by the STAR Market, Northbound capital has invested in 15 of them, excluding the environmental protection and social service sectors. Data indicates that Northbound capital inflows are more evident in the electronics and communications industries. As of June 18th, the market value of their holdings are 33.356 billion yuan and 733 million yuan respectively, which are 3.52% and 51.68% higher than at the end of the first quarter, and 11.77% and 12.91% higher respectively than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund. During the same period, the proportion of holdings in these two constituent industries by Northbound capital are 2.49% and 1.06% respectively, which are 0.15 and 0.28 percentage points higher than at the end of the first quarter, and 0.04 and 0.08 percentage points higher respectively than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund.

There are also signs of inflows into the computer industry, but they are not as evident as the aforementioned two constituent industries. As of June 18th, the market value of their holdings is 10.124 billion yuan, which is 1.50% lower than at the end of the first quarter but 1.47% higher than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund. The proportion of holdings during the same period has increased by 0.07 and 0.05 percentage points respectively.

As of June 18th, Northbound capital holds 329 STAR Market stocks. The top three in terms of market value are Transsion Holdings, Roborock Technology, and Kingsoft Office. The top three in terms of holding ratio are Times Electric, Roborock Technology, and Haier Biomedical. The three stocks with the largest increase in holding ratio since the establishment of the third phase of the large fund are Hemai Shares, Longsys Technology, and Tianna Technology, with increases of 3.09, 1.81, and 1.79 percentage points respectively.

The market value of Northbound capital holdings in the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Index as of June 18th is 87 billion yuan, which is 10.73% higher than at the end of the first quarter and 15.86% higher than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund. The holding ratio (3.98%) is 0.32 percentage points higher than at the end of the first quarter and 0.36 percentage points higher than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund.

Regarding the China Securities Technology Innovation Index, as of June 18th, the market value of Northbound capital holdings is 157.3 billion yuan, which is 1.29% higher than at the end of the first quarter and 3.01% higher than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund. The holding ratio (5.86%) is 0.05 percentage points higher than at the end of the first quarter and 0.01 percentage points higher than on the establishment date of the third phase of the large fund.